Week 27 31.28% Drop of an Exotic (still running)
Week 26 36.66% Drop of an Exotic
Week 25 57.58% Drop of an Exotic
Week 24 50.55% Drop of an Exotic
That seems to be statistically significant to me, though your first two weeks had far fewer votes. Is it possible that when the patch 1.1.1 went live they decreased the drop rate of exotics in Nightfalls from ~1/2 runs to 1/3 runs. I haven't gotten an exotic in three weeks, whereas before they were always dropping for me before then.
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I was lucky enough to get exotic drops to fill in my missing exotics in the past couple weeks. Gally and red death. Anyone else having luck in getting their missing exotics? Perhaps they lowered the drop rate but made the loot table "smarter" to consider what you already had received? This is more wishful thinking than anything but I'd like to think I didn't just have a lucky couple weeks and other's will catch their white whale soon too.
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It's also possible that people are more likely to report the good drops than the mediocre ones.
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It is possible there could be sampling bias, but it is the best we have to go on because this is the largest community I think. We could try to expand this to gamefaqs, gamespot and planet destiny, but that would be on WallaWallas
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Well u guys are lucky,the only exotics I've gotten are from xur. #nightfallsucks
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These are exactly the kind of connections I am hoping that we can make from this. Great feedback, I think I will mark the release of updates in order to highlight these changes. Thank you!