Sorry to say it but this is RNG. There is no science involved in it. It might drop exotic, might not. No research is needed to find out that everyone's drops are random.
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It'll be based around loot tables and percentage drops, by having people submit what they got you can maybe see if things have a higher percentage. Hard to say if it works like DIII, but that is RNG as well, but operates on a Loot Table, in that everytime you start a new game you have a different loot table that the RNG draws from....so if you have something good drop, you can usually go Kadala and buy the item type and you sometimes get the same good item. Your rewards are random, but they would have to be drawn from some sort of pool or table of items that changes everytime you load a new game, which is why you dont get the same thing everytime.
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I agree
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But that's where I disagree. While RNG might be used, how do we know if certain exotics don't have weights attached to them? Sure, maybe RNGesus picks a number from 1-100 to determine your reward, but how do we know things like Gjally don't have only 1 value in the pool, but weapons like a coiled hiss have say 5 values within the pool? It still be RNG, technically, but that doesn't mean every item has an equal chance to drop.
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With all the data miners around, we'd probably know by know if guns had weights on them.