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4/9/2015 7:33:32 PM
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The Statistics behind a Ghallarhorn drop, and where I'm at on the curve

Sooo, I don't have a ghallarhorn. Yep, I'm in that party. Rather than whine about it (oh, I have done my share of complaining), I thought I'd break out some statistics. [b]Assumptions[/b]: RNG is in play and impartial. Perhaps I'm wrong. But that's my assumption. [u][b]Background Numbers[/b][/u] There are currently 17 exotics that can drop as a reward. My drop count is in parenthesis if I've gotten multiples. They are: Hard Light Hawkmoon (2) Mida Multi-Tool Monte Carlo (2) No Land Beyond Red Death (2) SUROS Regime The Last Word (2) Universal Remote (2) Ice Breaker Patience and Time Plan C 4th Horseman Dragon's Breath (3) Ghallarhorn Thunderlord (2) Truth (3) Excluded: Vex Mythoclast, Necrochasm. These are raid specific. Excluded: 247 Vesta Dynasty, Fate of all Fools, Lord of Wolves. These are not available. Excluded: Exotic bounties: Pocket Infinity, Thorn, Bad Juju, Invective, Super Good Advice I currently lack SUROS Regime, 4th Horseman, and Ghallarhorn. I've received (as rewards) 23 exotics. [u][b]The Statistics[/b][/u] If every weapon has the same drop rate, then the chance of receiving a Ghallarhorn as an exotic reward is 1 out of 17, or 1/17 == 0.058824 or 5.8% So, I have a 5% chance of getting a ghorn each time. To put it another way, I have a 94.11% chance of NOT receiving a ghorn each time. To determine the odds of not receiving a ghorn across multiple drops, I multiply the chance by itself each time. So, the odds of not receiving a ghorn in 3 straight exotic drops is 94.11 * 94.11 * 94.11 = 83% The odds are 83% that I will NOT receive a ghorn as the exotic in 3 straight drops. [u][b]Where I'm At[/b][/u] So when I track down the numbers, since I've received 23 exotics so far, that puts me at a 25% chance of not receiving a ghallarhorn even once during those 23 drops. 25%? Is that crazy? Insane? If someone told me, "look beaker, you're going to get 23 exotics, and there's a 1 in 4 chance you won't get a ghallarhorn", would I be upset at this point? Nah. I don't think so. Honestly, I'm not that lucky of a person. To fall in the 25% category really doesn't surprise me. [i]It's a bummer[/i], but it's not that surprising. [u][b]When do I Start Crying Foul?[/b][/u] I think when I get to the 10% point, I'll start belly aching. That's 38 exotic drops. 15 more for me. If, after 15 more exotics I still don't have a ghallarhorn, then I'll probably start complaining that something isn't fair. [u][b]What about you?[/b][/u] So what about you? If you're still lacking that one exotic you'd really like, how many exotics have you received without getting it? Where are you statistically? [u][b]The Raw Numbers[/b][/u] Exotic Drops in a row ==> Probably of Not Getting a your desired exotic even once during that time 0 ==> 100% 1 ==> 94% 2 ==> 89% 3 ==> 83% 4 ==> 78% 5 ==> 74% 6 ==> 70% 7 ==> 65% 8 ==> 62% 9 ==> 58% 10 ==> 55% 11 ==> 51% 12 ==> 48% 13 ==> 45% 14 ==> 43% 15 ==> 40% 16 ==> 38% 17 ==> 36% 18 ==> 34% 19 ==> 32% 20 ==> 30% 21 ==> 28% 22 ==> 26% [b]23 ==> 25%[/b] 24 ==> 23% 25 ==> 22% 26 ==> 21% 27 ==> 19% 28 ==> 18% 29 ==> 17% 30 ==> 16% 31 ==> 15% 32 ==> 14% 33 ==> 14% 34 ==> 13% 35 ==> 12% 36 ==> 11% 37 ==> 11% 38 ==> 10% 39 ==> 9% 40 ==> 9% 41 ==> 8% 42 ==> 8% 43 ==> 7% 44 ==> 7% 45 ==> 7% 46 ==> 6% 47 ==> 6% 48 ==> 5% 49 ==> 5%

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  • There is a reason that casinos in particular have a board up that tells you that the previous numbers were in a roulette game for example. As humans we want to believe that past results will change future outcome. Well if the last three times it rolled red I should bet black right? Wrong. Numbers, cards and the like do not remember the last roll. If the system is truly random then you are right you have a 5.8% chance every time you play that you will get a ghorn as a drop. End of story. You cannot factor in all the times you have played in the past because you still have a %5.8 chance to get it. "But wait I've played 1000 night falls and still haven't gotten it, since I've played 1000 times my odds should have went up right?" Wrong, every run is fresh and past runs don't matter, numbers don't matter, 5.8% across the board every time.

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