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Edited by Double Eagle 30:
6/6/2013 3:25:57 AM
57
The Fall of Halo 4 and the Rise of Destiny .... Online Population Decline & The Ghost of Christmas Future
I felt the need to make a few marketing related comments over on the 343 Forum and got banned until March 29th 4571. Got to love it. :-)
In marketing the initial boost of sales called an inaugural sales spike that appears when an anticipated product hits the market gives the surface impression that its doing well but the retention rate is everything. When you look at the online populations for Reach after being out two years and then look at how fast Halo 4s online player count is dropping its obvious that Halo Reach was a much stronger game. In fact if you superimpose the deterioration curve of the previous Halo issues on where Halo 4 is now then its going to fall to a baseline way short of Reach. This IS a problem. The millions of copies of Halo 4 that sold last November were due to market expectation not the product itself.
Halo 5 is in very serious trouble because the all important retention rate (or lack thereof) reflects long term hard core interest by the base that shows up in the form of demand on the next release cycle. Online activity for Halo 4 has crashed so hard its just hard to believe and we may find that the fraction of base line player counts lost will match what Halo 5 ends up losing in inaugural sales when the new game comes out. Think in terms of a 25-40% loss in sales compared to Halo 4.
As a long time Halo player that purchased Halo 1,2,3,ODST,Reach and 4 the day they came out I must confess when I play Halo 4 I go around annoyed all the time because of the random aspects of the weapons placement on the maps and the random aspects of the ordinance drops among other things. These are the same reasons the game was dumped by Major League Gaming according to Forbes.
The people that I know that have been long time Halo nuts (myself included) are very much looking forward to Destiny because they think it is the expression of what Bungie would have done with Halo if they had been give a free hand. The Halo fan bases still exists and it showed up less that 6 months ago but next time the tsunami of demand that these players produce is likely to show up on Destiny not Halo 5.
References: http://www.halocharts.com/2012/chart/totalpopulation/all
http://majornelson.com/2013/05/01/live-activity-for-week-of-april-22nd/
http://www.gamespot.com/news/halo-4-playtime-fell-below-halo-reach-despite-more-content-6409214
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1 ReplyI've heard around the nets that a lot of the problems from Halo's multiplayer were because Microsoft tried to make it more 'accessible', really dumbing it down. Apparently several weapons were removed for this reason.
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I still really love what 343 has done with halo but I guess I'm a little more... What would a good word be? 'Loyal'? I'm not saying anybody isn't loyal. I probably should have said I'm just clinging to what I know. I've tried tons of other FPSs and halo is what I grew up playing and pretty much is the only one I'm good at, so please nobody take offense from my 'loyalty' comment, none was intended.
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3 RepliesEdited by Foday Church: 7/11/2013 6:17:18 AMWell spoken story, I've been with Halo since the get-go (since I was 5 xD and im 14 now). It was my very first FPS/Xbox Game I ever played and Halo revolutionized (and possibly) started FPS Genre with its multiplayer. Then Halo 2 revolutionized its multiplayer with XBL, competitive ranking system and every Halo trusty side-kick weapon... the BR. Then when the Xbox 360 released, Halo 3 inherited and improved what joy/fun Halo 2's Multiplayer left behind wih some great maps, DLCs, superb developer support, and 1-50 rankin system and a great story line (also Halo 1 and 2 had a great one too). Then Reach comes around, ppl didnt favor the changes such as the BR being gone, armor abilities, and 1-50 Gone! But Bungie did a smart move with its storyline by making it a prequel to clean up any plot-holes Halo had. And yes I did hate Reach but didnt hate it enough to the point where I wanted to stop playing. Even after beating the -blam!- out of the game from gainin all achievements to beating storyline on solo legendary to endless hours on Firefight. I still had one goal... Inheritor (which I reached on April 6, 2012). and woo Jesus, Inheritor... you needed DEDICATION for dat rank. ppl even went out there way to make YouTube vids bout ranking up to it, finally being "free". Then sadly Halo 4... I had HIGH expectations for this game and it crumbled to nothing. Mistake 1, 343 tried to make the game a casual game for everyone (where everyone feel like winners) which REALLY screwed it up. Mistake 2, taking out firefight, Spartan Ops was indeed ended up a colossal failure for 343 and firefight could've kept Halo 4 alive (hell, it kept ODST alive). Mistake 3, Storyline. For someone who does not keep up with the Halo trilogy will have a hard time trying to figure out what the halo 4 for storyline meant (meaning TOO MANY PLOT HOLES). Mistake 4 Ranking system, really 343? I reached SR 130 within a month (literally) not even a challenge was the worse part. Mistake 5, add things (Such as player-created loadouts) made the game unbalanced as hell cuz there was too many things (variables) that you would know that your opponent had, unlike Halo 3; everyone started out the same. Mistake 6 Ordinances, do I really need to explain? Overall 343 it shows that you did not learn from mistakes that Reach have done (which you had the chance to get rid of) but made worse. So it looks like Halo 4's my last Halo as I close the book and open to a new beginning (Destiny). Sorry if it was too long! :(
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Reach was bad, Halo 4 was worse, Destiny should to be amazing, nothing new here.
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2 RepliesTL/Did not give a shit.
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I couldn't have said it better my friend.
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3 RepliesI could agree and disagree, really halo 4 was a little overhyped and that led to the disappointment. But it was lacking weapon balancing which was adressed an fixed not to long ago. With that said the population did grow a bit, and I don't think there will be a downfall since it is still in the top 10 games being played on Xbl right now. I'm not fanboying but I will support halo and destiny no matter what. But I think the only thing that would cause a "downfall" would be the no backwards compatibility on the xbone.
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This probably won't be the most popular opinion, but for me ultimately Halo's downfall could [i]potentially[/i] be itself. It's a game that sticks to very strict rules as to what is and isn't "Halo". Plus, it has a (sometimes fanatical) competitive community around it that have all but dug a moat and built a wall around it. They have dug in and entrenched themselves into EVERY aspect of Halo [i]should be.[/i] Whether Halo collectively realizes it or not, they are turning into a game with waters so deep that it's a turn-off to a large enough percentage of new gamers that they might as well consider themselves elitist. Elitism isn't a good way to win over new fans. But neither is pandering to the opposite side. 343i tries to do both at the same time without the finesse to make it seamless.
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1 ReplyBeen a Bungie fan since Pathways Into Darkness. They had their ups and downs with Halo (I have been and always will be sharply critical of Halo 2's letdown of a campaign after the huge buildup of Halo 1, for example)... but overall they were good stewards of the series and took it in good directions, both in campaign and multiplayer. Halo: Reach IMO was a great sendoff. I had really high hopes for Halo 4, but the MP is not at all what Halo used to be, and unleashing the talentless cliché factory that produced Halo 4's campaign has all but buried my interest in Halo's storyline. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Bungie fanboy, I completely believed Halo could survive and thrive under new direction. But the new direction Halo got, is not it. Sort of like Alien/Aliens... first two films were magnificent, but then the series got driven off a cliff and hasn't come back. Not only that, but 343 even reached back into Bungie's backyard and took the excellent state Bungie left Reach's multiplayer in (especially Firefight, the Limited version of which had ended up becoming my favorite mode) and just ran a dump truck over it. Sad to say, with the exception of occasionally playing Spartan Ops with friends, Halo is pretty much over for me after Halo 4. What you're saying with regards to the population proves to me that I'm not the only one who felt that way.
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gosh i feel bad for everyone at 343, its not looking to good for them. I like halo 4 and i suppose the only thing keeping me from going back to reach is the fact that reach is broken, (disk is scratched). anyway i think halo 4 was my last halo game and ill be sticking with bungie. i hope people don't heighten their expectations because bungie is making this. if people don't get what they want id hate to see bungie get hurt because of it.
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2 RepliesVery true. I've been in since the beginning. The original trilogy and Reach are still my favorite games to date. But 343 really -blam!-ed up. As a long time Halo fan, it really saddens me that I just can't play the newest installment. Halo 4, at it's very core, is a casualized easy game. Even without it's gimmicks, I can't stand the game. So much aim assist and bullet magnetism, and the worst part is, 343 openly admitted at GDC that they WANTED to make the game easier and more random. But that's enough of that. MLG dropped Halo 4 and the population dwindles by the day. The game is dying. You can argue that it's not, but in my eyes, Halo is done. I most likely will not be buying Microsoft's newest console, which means no Halo 5 for me. On the topic of Destiny though, I really believe in Bungie. I know their hearts are in this game. They're very talented individuals, each and every one of them, and I know they're going to bring us the new Halo CE. The new game of the decade.
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I really feel bad for 343i. I think they honestly are trying their best to do with what's been given to them. It's Microsoft's fault, the fact that they are forcing Halo to stay a cash cow and forcing 343i to keep making halo games. I think any studio would struggle in their situation.
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I think 343i did pretty good with Halo 4! I'm really not picky about the Halo franchise. I want to see the trilogy be finished at least. I didn't really think about Destiny all that much when the first artwork was released, but now I'm really excited once more info came pouring in. Now with the whole console war going on, I'm having trouble choosing PS4 and X1. Many of the games I want are on both consoles except Halo and I'll feel really guilty leaving it behind. X1 policies are a turn off even though one of them have been abandoned. All those years of going through Master Chief's journey... T_T
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The first three halos were awesome. But 343 ruined it. Destiny is going to blow them out if the water.
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Good read. [b]Well said.[/b]
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10 RepliesDestiny is not going to fall to the same fate as Halo 4 because lol 25k peak daily population what the hell that's awful nobody plays Halo 4. Also Bungie knows what they're doing at a level five times higher than 343.
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Edited by MastaSin: 6/26/2013 4:48:32 AMWhy is this on Destiny? Shouldn't be only on gaming?
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7 RepliesI would love it if Halo 4 slipped below Reach in the activity charts.
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7 RepliesHalo 4's population is fantastic for 343's first game.
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1 Reply343 Halo isn't even about the "Halo"s so they should've just called it Forerunner or something. Halo: Reach rules!
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1 ReplyI plan in enjoying both halo 5 and destiny. You made a number of good points. I've always been more about the storyline, so I hope 343 makes it through to halo 6. I want to see how this ends.
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1 ReplyI couldn't stand Halo 4, I completed the first three chapters in the game, played a custom game to check out the warthog, THEY DESTROYED IT!!! then I sold it to game stop for what it was worth.
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2 RepliesHalo 4 was hyped up to much. I Bought every halo game and loved each one execpt Halo 4... Halo died with Reach
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1 Replyso should we start celebrating now or just wait until later? Destiny > 343 Halo
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MLG was smart to dump Halo 4
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16 RepliesI'm curious to see how many copies Halo 5 will sell, my guess is that it will do poorly. Another great ban! Great job 343 mods!
