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#Gaming

12/13/2013 9:44:06 PM
27

5 Reasons the Video Game Industry Is About to Crash

Saw this article with the above title on Cracked.com yesterday, but I haven't seen anyone talking about it here. Since the article is fairly long, here's a brief summary (click on the link above for more): [quote][b]TL;DR Summary[/b] The main argument of the article is that the video game industry is headed for another crash like the [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983]video game crash of 1983[/url]. Here are the arguments why: 5. We put people who don't know gaming in charge (Execs at large game developers tend to have little experience in game design/development) 4. Budgets have gone insane, and that's making innovation impossible (Making a game costs so much money that studios are hesitant to take risks) 3. Publishers are gaming the review system (Video game reviewers/journalists rely on ad revenue from the very companies they're purportedly reviewing, and combined with the widespread industry practices of providing swag, comps, early access, and VIP treatment for game journalists/reviewers, gamers are losing trust in video game reviews) 2. You're always flying blind (Innovations in hardware and software mean that game developers are frequently coding for systems that don't exist yet, so early gameplay trailers rarely end up looking like the final game, causing further loss of customer trust) 1. The industry is extremely exploitative, and it's driving away talent (Developers and publishers put extreme demands on their employees for very low pay and very poor job security, and talented people who feel exploited may leave for a different industry with more stable working conditions and better pay)[/quote] What are your thoughts on this? To avoid making the OP too long, I'll reply with my own opinion in a separate post.

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  • Edited by FoMan123: 12/13/2013 10:03:08 PM
    In my opinion, the article raises some legitimate gripes about the industry (and perhaps a little too obviously from the point of view of a jaded freelance programmer), but the idea that any of these things could cause a crash is a little too extreme. The video game crash of 1983 was actually caused by a combination of factors that tend to be the [i]opposite[/i] of what we see today. Namely: 1. Due to limited hardware and (relatively) primitive software, games were [i]too easy[/i] and too fast to develop. 2. Similarly, the simplicity of hardware in 1983 made CONSOLES too easy and too fast to develop. 3. Everybody trying to horn in on the success of Atari and Commodore in the first- and second- console generations resulted in a glut of consoles and game cartridges on the market. 4. Lack of digital downloads and the huge size of both consoles and game cartridges meant that toy/game stores had limited space to hold inventory. 5. Too many clones/copycat games in stores and the lack of widespread, unbiased media/press coverage of video games resulted in loss of consumer confidence, and they stopped buying games. 6. Retail tried to return unsold inventory, but game developers weren't making any money and couldn't afford buybacks. 7. Burned by this, retail exited the video game sales industry and game consumers moved on to PCs (remember that this was still 2 years before NES). 8. Industry crashes. Looking at the above list, and today's video game industry, we can see a number of factors that would prevent a crash: - Digital downloads and platform ecosystems mean that game devs and publishers no longer have to rely on 3rd party retail (though, obviously, console manufacturers still do to some extent) - Big AAA games today require years of development, huge teams, and millions of dollars. You can't make a AAA game with two dudes in a garage anymore. While this may still result in "genre clones" (see: military first-person shooters), this tends to disadvantage unoriginal individual game developers rather than the industry as a whole. - Large gaming platforms have content curation systems in place [i]specifically[/i] to prevent clones and buggy games. See: Xbox's policies for indie games as compared to the Apple iOS Store, and compare the overall quality and quantity of games on each. - Console platforms are moving toward an "entertainment-based" ecosystem rather than pure gaming (TV, video, music, apps, internet browsing, etc.). Perhaps Microsoft more than Sony at this point, but the hope for both is that a bump in the video game industry would not result in the end of the console -- thus providing a buffer for game devs and publishers themselves as well. While I'm sure that there might eventually be some consumer backlash against individual devs/publishers/platforms based on some of the author's gripes, I see his article as, on the whole, entirely unpersuasive. The legitimate points that the author brought up are likely to be corrected by individual companies with innovative and successful business models -- not a crash of the entire industry.

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