Obviously there are the select few who choose not to get TESO due to the P2P.
(May I remind you, the substantial price for one year of playing Elder Scrolls Online will be over $160.)
The way things look now makes it seem as of Zenimax is doing just fine. Similar to WoW, I have no doubts that TESO will succeed. On a side note, totally contradicting myself, a good sized portion of their fan base will not be getting the game to the subscription fee. This indicates the loss in sale numbers, and they will eventually have to do something.
My theory, oddly enough, is that TESO will become like Runescape.
For those who don't know what Runescape is, it is a game that thrived in f2p roughly from 2001-2008. Afterwards, they charged people for "membership" which meant that they gave more content and items to paying members.
(EDIT: apparently I'm wrong, but you get my point on this)
Now, you may be thinking to yourself ~ what's he saying? They became more populated, so they added subscription? But TESO will become empty, and they'll have to go f2p?
Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying.
I believe that if Zenimax changes their strategies to make the game function like Runescape, they will succeed entirely.
Why, you ask? If TESO ends up being a good game, the f2p players will want more and afterwards subscribe. But if TESO ends up being a moderately common game, then the f2p players will continue playing and TESO's fan base will not deteriorate. It's a win/win.
[spoiler]but if TESO is a bad game, they fail anyways.[/spoiler]
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I give it 6 months before they announce they'll make it F2P.