Something happens once its a fluke. Something happens 2 times maybe an anomaly. I have had something happen 4 times so im calling that a trend.
I guess my brother and I are the Hawkmoon whisperers, for each of the last several nightfall runs our 3rd fire team member has always received the Hawkmoon upon completion of the nightfall. This has happened 4 times in 4-5 weeks now. So I wanted to discuss some factors and try to see if there is anything more to it then just pure RNG.
First off i have a strong feeling that the hawkmoon being a playstation exclusive (im on ps4) might have a higher drop rate than other exotics. Second factor my brother and I have been 28-29 for each of the nightfall runs, while the 3rd member has always been below us (25-28) at least one level or more. Im not sure about all the runs but the last 2 runs for sure, the 3rd person was the one who landed the kill shot. Not sure if this next point has anything to do with it either but i'll list it anyhow, each time at the reward screen the person receiving the Hawkmoon has been listed in the middle slot and I believe we are arranged alphabetically. The third person being under leveled leads to them doing the least amount of kills/damage to boss.
I really dont know if its just pure luck or some other factor but 4 times now we have seen the Hawkmoon drop to the person who fits the above criteria. It cant be coincidence, there is something more to the nightfall loot than we know. I feel it should be statistically impossible for this to happen that the drop is always Hawkmoon and it always goes to the person who meets the above criteria, so we are missing something about how the drops really work.
I have only seen one exotic drop in crucible, it was the thunderlord and it went to the 2nd place guy on the winning team, but he did have the best k/d at 2.5. Now I have seen many posts that ppl in crucible are upset that the guy who goes 2-20 seems to more frequently get exotic and legendarys. It could be that no one reports or feels angry when the top guy gets a good drop, or it could be that the top players are actually getting good drops less often, i would love to see stats on this.
In conclusion this is all the data i have at this time, and while its not much its something. My spidey sense is tingling on this one and i hope the community can uncover any secrets about loot drops in general. If it really is 100% RNG then i need to get a lucky horseshoe, rabbits foot, and leprecaun.