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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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5 RepliesYou're making a leap here, that they all have an equal probability of dropping. For all we know, it could have a higher drop chance than the others.
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2 RepliesYou can't simply calculate it and compare it to reality. I'm sure someone who paid better attention in statistics than I did knows what to do here. We're probably gonna need at least 20 more weeks of Xur to be sure.
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3 RepliesEdited by doublesit: 11/28/2014 11:04:35 AMyou see what you did here? you get everybody into statistics and probability calculation! you must be a math theacher ...
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1 Replyyea there are 6 types of warlock exotics for xur 2 of which are chest but each week its either chest, helmet, or arms so if its chest pieces he's selling theres a 50/50 chance
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4 RepliesIt's somewhat RNG but it is definitely primary, special and then heavy. The only reason it was two primaries consecutively is because the update reset the trend. Next week will be heavy.
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26 RepliesYour completely wrong on your probabilities. You see each week with xur is a new week of probabilities. Meaning. Just like roulette the probability of him having the same exotic twice thrice or four times is exactly the same each week. You my friend have are struck with a case of gamblers fallacy.
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3 RepliesEdited by BTHRZeroX: 11/28/2014 10:48:25 AMhmm maybe
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5 RepliesEdited by S2H UK: 11/28/2014 10:42:20 AMHahahaha so many people in here can't use basic maths or probability. The OP's method is correct so people talking about inclusive probability need to shut up. This is mutually exclusive probability.
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8 RepliesTrue randomness doesn't take into account what has been rolled previously. If you roll a dice and land 6.. that doesn't mean the dice remembers it rolled a 6 and there's a possibility to roll 6 again, multiple times. You can't use math to determine randomness, sure you can determine what percentage (6 items - 4 weeks - outcome) but that doesn't disprove RNG.
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1st to 3rd xur Warlocks hated sunbreakers Any thing i forgot but until now Warlocks hated voidfang vestments
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I think Bungie lets everything in Xur's inventory fall to RNG, with the exception of the weapons. I believe that whenever Xur's inventory "rolls" for the upcoming Friday they will look at the weapon and if it already sold too recently they will change it to something else. I would think they were putting more effort into mixing up the weapon selection since we've seen multiple first-timers in a row. Since armor obviously isn't changing I feel they're just letting the RNG fall where it will.
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2 RepliesYour math is wrong
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2 RepliesThe math is fine but you are making a massive assumption: That every exotic armor piece is weighted the same by the supposed RNG. Planet Destiny used the Xur bug to look back at his previous inventory and they saw only one appearance of Skull of Dire Ahakwhatever. 1/52 times Skull popped up, which suggests that certain items are weighted more heavily then others. Sunbreakers showing up time after time after time and now Voidfang popping up over and over and over means one of a couple things: we have been screwed by RNGesus, some items are weighted considerably more then others or the RNG of this game sticks, horribly. We just do not have enough data to assume an even weight of all the items so unfortunately your proof is only proof of your assumptions.
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2 Replieshmmm...but 4 weeks is too small of a sample size. you at least have to include every week since xur's first appearance, and even then your data pool is too small to come to any statistically significant conclusions.
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Lol Just stop please Lmao
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8 RepliesProblem here is: Is every exotic armor sold by Xur? I don't think so!
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You can't use to the power of anything on RNG look at the raid. That's like saying bungie chooses who gets what from the raid all because you got chapter white and AE 5 times in a row on hard mode.
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Maths - I like it.
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8 Replies...you do realize you just proved its a 77% chance right.
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4 RepliesSo there is roughly a 1 in 2500 chance this could happen. The odds of being struck by lightning are lower, yet people do get struck by lightning. This is no different, it's simply a statistically improbable event that came to pass. Sucks though, since I got my voidfangs from the first time he sold body engrams, and would like a praxic fire to play around with someday. Randomness can be awesome, but it can also majorly suck.
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1 ReplyNot saying I disagree, but any possibility is still a possibility right?
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1 ReplyAnd Titans
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Gobbledy gook
