{{
`${userDetail.user.displayName}${userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode ? `#${standardizeBungieGlobalCode(userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode)}` : ""}`}}
{{getUserClans()}}
Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
-
2 RepliesSo your saying there's a chance. In Jim Carrey voice from dumb and dumber.
-
I hope you know each type of armor and weapon could be and is probably weighted
-
Long story short: Xur is a dick
-
1 ReplyI feel like if xur was truly random we'd see alot more repeats on the weapons. How many weapon repeats have there been? 2
-
1 ReplyAt least you tried. Lol
-
2 RepliesThis is all theory of course. Not actual "proof". Even though math and percentage is provided it's all percent and chance. Not trying to drag you down. It's just like all theories, that's all it is. No way to know for sure. Unless you feel like sending Bungie 100 messages a day over the course of 10 years to get a response that says "unable to disclose this information", well then... You know XD
-
8 Repliesyour math is off because you can not multiply 16,66% 4 times and get a % that is lower then it's self. if you are basing your math with percents then you have to have a base number to work with Also he sold the titan chest 4 weeks in a row. Also you used only the warlock chest which there is only 2 of, so if Xur is going to sell a chest you have a 50% chance get the VFV again. The rng for Xur works like this First rng picks the types of gear that will be sold Second rng pick which items will be sold you can't base math of flawed concepts because then you will always get the wrong answer.
-
4 RepliesWhenever you have to edit a post 8 times its never good. You should have just left it at "I don't think xur is RNG".. Then you went into math which is obviously not your strong suit, were promptly shown you were wrong, then got defensive when you realized your mistake instead of owning up. I think a few people have used this analogy.. If I roll a die 5 times and each time I get a 4 what is the probability of getting a 4 in the 6th roll? Think about it.
-
Edited by Moore1006: 11/28/2014 11:32:32 PMThe possibility of it happening that many times in a row yes. Rare however it's still 16 percent every week that it could be anything next week there's a 16 percent it's void fang again Edit: not saying it doesn't such I started with a hunter and now I have 3 level 30 of each class and I have every hunter exotic armor but I bought every one so I am lucky that he's sold each one but at the same time I found 0 for a hunter before it was already bought I have about 250 hours logged and most of it is with my hunter that's why I like that xur is in the game granted for other classes he sucks but so does rng
-
2 RepliesYou do realize that probability doesnt change like that. For example if you flip a coin 3 times and all three times it is heads, when you flip the coin a forth time, the chance that it will be heads is still 50%. This means that if he works by a system where it first chooses head, arms or chest, and then the armour piece, there is a 1/3 chance that it will be chest, and then out of that it is again 1/3 chances (i think there are three chest pieces), that it will be voidfang. This probability does not change per week, unless it is put into the programming that if this item has been sold before that now it has a lower chance of appearing (which doesnt seem to be the case). There for every week the chance of it being voidfang is the same, no matter what happened last week. Voidfang just so happens to be what has appeared for these past few weeks. People always take into account the past when looking at probabilities, but we forget that machines do not, and so our calculations end up being off.
-
4 RepliesWrong. It's 50% it will either happen, or it won't.
-
Yeah but even if you're saying it's 1in a million...you're basically saying that it's not probable but that it IS possible. Therefore, booya
-
there are 6 items to sale for each class.. go and grab 3 dices. give each item a number from 1 to 6 and now throw them 12 times. i bet you'll never get 6 times the same number for one class. THAT would be real RNG.
-
5 RepliesYou're forgetting one crucial fact. Xur doesn't carry ALL the exotics. He has a certain pool to pick from. Meaning that 1 in 6 is actually 1 in 2 or perhaps 3. Suddenly that chance is looking pretty slimmer isn't it? This is another double RNG at work. The first roll determines which slot Warlock armor is selected. Then it selects from a very limited pool to fill with another RNG.
-
If this is "not rng" it wouldn't makes sense at all for the people at bungie to sell these certain armour pieces 5-6 weeks in a row
-
It doesn't matter becomes next week he'll sell sunbreakers (like a true troll)
-
1 ReplyXur is RNG. True randomness has patterns.
-
It's RNG like everything in this game. Unfortunately we like many raiders have just been unlucky and gotten the same thing over and over. Look at all the 29's who've raided every week since launch and still haven't gotten the gear. Yes your maths is correct and the chances of getting it 4x in a row is next to none. But the chance is there. It is mathematically possible that we could get it every week for the next 5 years. Hopefully and probably not though lol.
-
Even if it's a near-impossible chance, it is a chance and would make RNG possible. It could be predetermined as well but come on... who has the time to select some piece of armour every weekend? I honestly doubt they'd waste time on that and just work on improvements, dlc, D2 and other things
-
So your math is saying it's possible. It's a far reach or slim chance it will happen, but it's possible. I think the fact he has had it 4 times in a row is more proof it is RNG than someone choosing it, who would choose it 4 times in a row? Winning the lottery has very low odds, but people win all the time.
-
2 RepliesApparently someone in Bungie let it slip that Xur isn't random.
-
Your math is correct, but it assumes the random number generator assigns equal weight to each option. This proves that if its RNG based, it is heavily waited in favor of certain items, (which those of us who believe it's RNG based already suspected), not that it isn't RNG based.
-
-
Now my question is, does it matter?
-
XUR HAS A SET ITEMS LIST!!!!! HE IS NOT RNG
-
Edited by CTDMUDRUNNER: 11/28/2014 9:45:32 PMYour percent of selling consecutively is "correct" but the chance of selling a certain piece is about 17% not counting class items? I don't think math proves this. With at the same time I feel bungie would be smart enough, no matter how much some hate them, to change the item being sold. EDIT: not taking into thought weighted effect maybe in there. I just feel bungie is smarter then this. And I think being able to on Playstation set time back a year before the game launched and still see items from Xur? I don't think bungie was setting up weekly items from Xur a year before launch.
