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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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9 Repliesyou're completely wrong. you're trying to use logic that doesn't exist, "law of averages" is fake. every week, it is a 1/6 change of Voidfang Vestments, the probability never changes just cause it happened the week before.
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Nothing in this game is "random" and the patterns are so obvious Ray Charles can see it. Random, really? That is why I get the same rare Scout Rifle 15 times in a row.
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2 RepliesDo people still buy shit from Xur? He offers nothing better than Raid Gear so why bother? I use him for synthesis at this point. I have surpassed as many gamers have to the point where he is of no value in the game. So why post about it?
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Random, said and done, all the proof you want to spew and spit out. Does not mean a thing. The fact you have been able to see how he sells things for a very long time, and that there is no pattern in that glitch of seeing it, and that there has been 0 pattern to date only further proves it. It is not their issue he is not selling what you want.
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Worst logic ever...[spoiler]Just shut up and praise the sun.[/spoiler]
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It may be unlikely but the probability you calculated doesn't accurately portray the odds. Every week it's 1/6 chance of getting them which isn't that ridiculous to get the same thing multiple weeks in a row
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1 ReplyEdited by docalvaran: 11/28/2014 4:56:04 PMwhen you said the words " CHANCE, PERCENTAGE and Probabilty" it means Random. if it is not RNG then you can tell us exactly what he is selling next week or so. if you don't know what is going to be sold then it is called RANDOM. so drops in raid is not random cuz you probably have 10-25% of getting the number but bungie just enjoys taking baths in salty tears?
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Murphy's Law
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Not to mention Xur has had almost every single exotic weapon short of hardlight and bounty exotics. That right there should show you he isn't RNG.
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This proves nothing. It's still a non-zero percent chance. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. Random in [i]random[/i], it means anything could happen, even this. Your logic wrong.
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There's Probably a high Probability that Xur will sell something that i Probably want to buy.And probably soon ;)
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3 RepliesAssuming the chances of a certain piece of armour dropping is a straight 1 in 6 chance, and the game simply pulls from those items every week... Then every week it is a one in 6 chance. The math works the exact same as flipping a coin. The chance of getting heads is 50/50 every time you flip the coin, regardless of what the result was on the last flip. So one item appearing one week will still have the exact same odds for appearing next week. The math resets each week.
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Just because something is improbable doesn't mean it is impossible. Your data is not proof, since it is still possible that he is random. Aside from that, I do not think there has been any official release detailing if Xur's items are random or planned. Your data may lean towards planned, but again, it's not definitive proof.
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Diablo is rng WoW is rng ....Destiny is wait xur will have it for you soon our a later..I wish xur was never a part of the game
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Look at things like - how many people got hawk moon on the nightfall this week, how it seems like a lot of people get said gun ( I just got plan c) before the weekend all of a sudden plan c is being sold, I think there is someone deciding which guns on each week, for sure
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1/6^6= 1 in 46,656 chance However this dosnt mean it's not RNG as I believe the better armour peices have a slightly lower weight then the voidfang vestments Still extremely unlikely though
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You will dream of teeth and nothing else. Nothing else part is kinda true, don't you think?
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I wouldn't mind if he was random on a per account basis. :D Anything is better than this same stuff. I think if the game was new and your customer base new as well but we are a bunch of jaded guardians that expect juat a wee tad more.
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You assume Xur has a chance to drop any piece of gear. Warlocks know by now that Xur only sells Voidfang or sunbreakers with about a 48% chance of either, the other 4% is his rare stock of the fencers helmet or the native American tribal feather hat.
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Certain things can obviously be weighed as more common on the loot table. Don't be naive.
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3 Repliesnever tell me the odds
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Actually, you can't prove this isn't random. Because the key word is [i]random[/i]. It is statistically unlikely, but it is still possible.
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2 RepliesReceiving the thorn bad juju invective bounty bounty 12 times in a row is not random either. There is definitely more than just rng happening in this game. Also; the four exotics I've gotten from nightfall, patience and time, truth, void fang vestments and now plan c, have all been xur items that same week. And two other times I ran it with my gf, last word, and truth also the SAME week. Not random.
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1 ReplyPersonally, I think a Bungie employee has complete control of this, and they're laughing their ass off every time. It is hilarious how peeps get so worked up over Xur (and many other things). In the end, it's just a game, and I do have to remind myself sometimes. Although, I do find it tragic that Bungie has taken the path of ruining weapons because they can't or won't take the time to separate PVP from PVE, or alter the weapon stats for PVP only...It's sad. BTW..I have purchased from Xur, and will continue to. I think this week's offerings were a sign to wait for the DLC items.
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This also happened to the Armamentarium, so I agree. He's not RNG
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I don't think there's an explanation to figure out how rng works, it's random generated, it seems it's good or bad to you but it just is, it can't be fixed because that's how it works, if people got all the drops they want, you would have all items in the game in two days, think about it, I'm used to really difficult rngs, destiny's rng is a walk in the clouds, missions are easy and you can complete them several times, in other games you complete really difficult missions and you get garbage, people don't complain there because they are not cod players, they know how rng works, here, of course all cod kids who don't know what rng is will cry and cry and cry until mom buys them another game....
