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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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I don't think there's an explanation to figure out how rng works, it's random generated, it seems it's good or bad to you but it just is, it can't be fixed because that's how it works, if people got all the drops they want, you would have all items in the game in two days, think about it, I'm used to really difficult rngs, destiny's rng is a walk in the clouds, missions are easy and you can complete them several times, in other games you complete really difficult missions and you get garbage, people don't complain there because they are not cod players, they know how rng works, here, of course all cod kids who don't know what rng is will cry and cry and cry until mom buys them another game....
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the RNG is broken beyond belief. my proof: the motherf**king cryptarch......i bring him a stack of engrams...all the purples turn into warlock gear, and the rest turned into the EXACT same stuff... titan class armor turns into one of 3 different pieces, ALL titan armor components are something in the knight series, special weapons are generally sniper rifles (in the example visit, he litereally gave me 6 of the SAME rifle)....the RNG is garbage. xur's weekly repeat is just another example the RNG being garbage. https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/72482667/0/0
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7 RepliesEdited by fnky143: 11/28/2014 2:24:31 PMSomeone was throwing around a video a month or so ago where DeeJ and the gang were running Crucible matches for shaders. In there he's heard stating that Xur items for sale are decided by Bungie but he cannot comment on what those choices are as he's not informed/has no say.
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At first I saw the math like, "wut?", but then I realized how you there and remembered I did that shit in 8th grade
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I don't care what he is I just want heavy ammo synthesis
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What if it's activison and not bungie....
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That's not proof.
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Randomness creates counter intuitively dense clusters. Humans tend to try and create order from chaos,it's how our minds work. Take the old IPods shuffle feature for example. It was completely random and yet people complained it played the same artist or song multiple times. They had to change it to "appear" more random because of human perception. Flip a coin 300 times there is a random possibility that heads Will show 200 times. Yes I know a coin is a 50% chance but same concept here. Complete randomness allows for having the same item many times because true randomnes cares not what came before.
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Of me getting heart of praxic fire.....
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Xur is RNG. It is possible all items are not weighted similarly so they are harder to get. For example: Let's say that the RNG can only generate numbers 0-100. So let's say it generates a 45 this week. Then that number is compared against the programed criteria. 0-75 void fang 76-95 chest b 96-100 praxic fire. Still an RNG, just not equal weights. There is no way in hell bungie is paying someone a salary to pick what xur is selling
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Too small a sample group for the calculation to be valid. It's like saying there is zero chance of getting a particular gun because it wasn't sold the first 2 weeks
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8 RepliesBungie wouldn't intentionally screw over 1/3 of the player base with the same thing over and over. It was proven Xurs wares are not selected by Bungie when people were rolling their clocks back to see what Xur sold before the games release. He is coded to select his own wares.
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2 RepliesSo when Bungie asked what we wanted and everyone asked for the Suros, people believed that it was RNG when the Suros was offered that week?
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42 RepliesThe probability is always 16.66% PER WEEK, there's no 4 week probability. The probability will not change for each week that it comes, it will always be the same.
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I got the Warlock helmet from nightfall (the intellect one). If it weren't for that I'd be calling for xurs head
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1 ReplySo you're telling me there's a chance
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3 RepliesThey said screw you to warlocks since you guys cheesed atheon so much deal with it.
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1 ReplyHow do u no that he sells all 6 exotics? Maybe he doesn't sell the other chest or helmet.
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This whole game is like groundhog day!
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1 ReplyI told ya, that's what you get for pushing bosses.
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Come back as soon as you've taken fourth grade math
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What if each item is weighted differently?
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Remind me to call you when I need mathematical help in an argument.
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5 RepliesEdited by Vox Mortuis: 11/28/2014 2:38:35 PMI'd be more suspicious that bungie controls it if he sells yet another gun he's never sold before, next week. If you haven't noticed there have been tons of armor repeats, but in the last few weeks he's sold guns he had not previously sold. Right now there are only 3 guns that he hasn't sold (hardlight, universal remote, and thunderlord) if he sells one of these next week, my suspicious will rise. The probability is him selling one of those as opposed to a repeat is low. Not talking about individual probability, but about the combined probability of sold vs not sold yet.
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Same goes for Titan chest piece, 3 out of 4 weeks now. Probability of me getting a titan helmet 0. I have done the raid on both normal and hard have had 5 chest and 4 boots.
