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11/28/2014 10:42:03 AM
1
I completely understand that the probability of the next toss is unaffected by the outcome of the previous ten, however, the probability that the same outcome of those tosses will appear 10 times in a row is not 1/2 it is 0.5 to the power of 10 and this is the situation we are discussing. I would refute your suggestion that I am confusing myself good sir, (regardless of whether you believe me or not I am currently in an engineering lecture at the university of Cambridge which is a very maths heavy course) Google how to work out the probability of a coin producing heads 10 times in a row and you will get the same answer I have given you
English
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That's the probable outcomes of future tosses though. Where as what I'm saying is the probability of the one toss or in this case the probable outcome of xur's inventory on any given Friday. (Not talking his probable inventory weeks ahead)
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That does not change the fact that the probability of the item appearing 4 times in a row (which is what has happened) is 1/6 to the power of 4 as illustrated by the wikipedia quote
