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Edited by Thatmg7:
11/28/2014 11:56:41 AM
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1) learn how math works you idiot
Pure random is Pure RANDOM
e.g.
there are X outcomes each outcome has the same chance of happening no matter how many times you roll.
e.g.
if there are 10 items
each item has 10% chance of happening
each item is EQUAL
You can roll a hundred times and still under basic laws of fact get lots of repeats of the same item. That is possible because each items has the same chance 10% each time you run the RNG.
This is how pure RNG works
Previous rolls DO NOT affect additional rolls.
Doing stupid maths about how you try and say its 1/6 and works down show how badly educated you were in school, that is complete rubbish and NOT how pure rng works.
Its a logical fallacy to think that way.
English
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Edited by kklathan8613: 11/28/2014 12:36:45 PMFirst lets examine "RNG". RNG stands for Random Number Generator, which is a misnomer as a RNG is anything but random. A Random Number Generator works by checking against a mathematical function to produce a number within a specific set of limits. In simple programing terms it is usually somewhere between .00 and .99. A RNG is never pure random as the math which is used to generate that number can be understood and future numbers can be predicted with 100% accuracy. Second we have no idea that that 6 items means each item has a 1/6 chance of appearing every day. It could be that there is a 1/3 chance for between helms, chest and hand exotics, with there being a 1/3, 1/2 and 1/1 respective chance for a specific item to appear in each category. If so that means that there is a 1/3 * 1/2 or by the magic of pure coincidence a 1/6 chance of Voidfang appearing in any given week, a 1/9 chance of any given helm appearing in a given week or a 1/3 chance for Sunbreakers to appear in any given week. Third you are correct, previous rolls do not affect future rolls. However the chance, over a given 4 week period, that any given item will appear each week is the chance of the item appearing in a given week raised to the power of the number of weeks, given that the chance is constant across all weeks. In other words (1/6)^4 or after the math in the OP 0.00077 and some change.
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Try rolling a 6 on a dice four times in a row, see how long that takes you...
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See how long it takes you to roll any certain combination of numbers in order... It's going to be the exact same chances....
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But he's talking about rolling a specific set compared to EVERY OTHER POSSIBLE OUTCOME. That drastically lowers the chances.
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rolling a dice IRL is bias. There are so many factors Force used How it lands +more complex stuff Now if you wanted to post how 6 outcomes are affected by an unbiased system. You would get each outcome always has 1/6 th a chance happing and that 4 being rolled 4 times is always 1/6th because the unbiased system doesn't care about previous rolls.
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Haha I was reading the comment before you and was just about to type that exact comment. Yeah the chances of that happening are not very good.
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Edited by TheGiant117: 11/28/2014 12:27:53 PMHe is not saying there is a smaller chance each roll. He is saying there is a smaller chance to get it 4 times in a row vs 3 times in a row, 2 times in a row, or once.
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Edited by Thatmg7: 11/28/2014 12:46:56 PMAn that is incorrect it has nothing to do with my lack of understanding. The chance to get one item is ALWAYS equal to other items. Under pure random. You can be an idiot and say that X item had a 0.XXXX% chance of being picked multiple times but you an idiot for doing so. Because that is theoretical BS. The truth is that it had the SAME chance as other items but was roll because the RNG system DOES NOT FAVOUR one outcome over another outcome. What is showing people do not UNDERSTAND what RANDOM means. What they think should be happening isn't actually random. I would be worried if we kept getting different items every week because that might be that someone or something is at work behind the scenes and it wouldn't be true random. What is a big important thing as we have very few number of exotics in game atm and that furthers this kind of outcome. This is why adding New Items or Outcomes to a Pure random system actually decreases the chance one item has of occurring. E.g. with 4 possible outcomes Each item has 25% chance to happen 8 outcomes is 12.5% chance to happen 10 outcomes is 10% chance to happen You can run the equation to the infinite but the chance never chances because the equation doesn't value or weight one outcome over another. Human Bias (the people posting) value one outcome over another because they lack the key understanding of basic maths. That Mathbot Xur cares not about he gives you random items regardless.
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So if Voidfang has a 1/6th chance(or whatever it is) of being for sale, what is the chance that it will be sold 4 times in a row? From your post, I feel like you're saying it is still a 1/6th chance.
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This guy can't understand this...
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I think you are misunderstanding me i understand the chance will always be 1/6 to get voidfang each time, but to get in a multitude of time IN A ROW, the chances will change
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[quote]I think you are misunderstanding me i understand the chance will always be 1/6 to get voidfang each time, but to get in a multitude of time IN A ROW, the chances will change[/quote]Yeah this is correct.
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Edited by Thatmg7: 11/28/2014 12:19:44 PMno its NOT it is ALWAYS 1/6th chance no matter how many times or weeks pass. There are ALWAYS 6 possible outcomes so its ALWAYS 1/6th chance. Or whatever it actually is, the basics stay the same regardless of how complex you make the roll. That is how PURE RANDOM works Previous events do not affect future events. You could get the same items INFINITE number of times, because the chance to do so is ALWAYS 1/6 or whatever number of outcomes there are. Saying it is less likely to happen the more times is happens is BAD MATHS, and would fail you in any Mathematical Test.
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You dont quite understand the maths as well. Take a die and roll it 100 times to see if you can roll four of a same number in a row, theres a good chance you wont. the chances of rolling the same number 4 times in a row will be a smaller than 1/6. I understand the % doesn't change from roll to roll, but its easy to understand rolling 3 in a row will be harder than 2 in a row and so on. Now if it does a random roll for what piece of armor, then a roll on what item you would have a 1/4 chance roll then a 1/2 chance roll.
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Edited by Thatmg7: 11/28/2014 1:03:25 PMYou don't see to understand basic logic. The idea that an item has less chance of occurring the more times you run the RNG is INCORRECT and is what I'm explaining to you and other multiple times. IT IS BLATANT stupidity and human bias to say such a thing. The system always runs the equation and the chance of the item occurring is always the same because under Pure RNG the Equation does not value one outcome over another outcome or previous outcomes. Whatever the actual chance is is meaningless to the basic fact of how a pure rng system functions. There could be a 1/6th chance of the item There could be a 20% chance of item happening There could be other factors like Roll to see if what armour is picked (Hat/Chest/Arms) Roll to see what Class is picked (Durr) Roll to see what Item is picked (Durr) However its actually structured as long as its pure random repeats are always equal chance of happing than non repeats. THAT IS HOW THE EQUATION WORKS. Saying otherwise is human ignorance and misuses of probability. Saying its 0.XXXXX chance is a theoretical vacuum ignorant statement. The very same basic failure of understanding is used all the time to manipulate real world things like X people call themselves belong to a Faith so we need faith schools X crimes happen so blank (ignoring unreported crime) X people are unemployed or figures misused due to "training programs" or "No Pay work not counting" X women agree this product is a good product Kappa :B You can make things appear to be something they're not if you miss use maths. When in actual fact you're WRONG.
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I understand the chances never fluctuate, every item has equal chances of happening during a random roll. What I'm getting at is, in dice games (math is not something I'm passionate about nor find much real world use aside from drug calculations so these are basic examples) in dice, a 2 of a kind is easier to get than a four of a kind. Rolling a 6,5,4,3,2,1 in succession won't be seen 20% of the time even though each individual item has a 20% chance of dropping. Check out this website, these guys sound smarter than you and me. http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/893342/how-to-calculate-the-probability-of-rolling-6-at-least-5-times-in-a-row-out-of On a side note that last half of your paragraph was confusing as hell.
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See it was stated in another thread You maths is correct but Its incorrect theory that has no relevance to Xur. Xur picks items randomly There are 2 exotic per item slot for a class there are 3 classes That means 6 items per slot due to this Xur always has a 1/6th chance of picking an exotic He never is affected by previous weeks Saying the % is lower each time is hideously wrong and a bad application of maths. I don't actually believe its a 1/6th as I posted the way i think it most likely organised. However the actual stat is meaningless to the basic function of how an RNG works. It is always 1/6th chance of occurring next week. That is not less probable because of last weak its is EXACTLY 1/6th nothing more nothing less. Under pure random he could do this shit until 2015 xmas. Highly unlikely you might say but its still possible because the equation is always going to be 1/6th or number of outcomes turned into a % or fraction 10 items would be 10% per item 20 items would be 5% per item etc etc
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You're not understanding the OP. He's not saying that the chances change based on the same number of variables. The chance of getting voidfang vestments EACH WEEK remains the same. That is separate from what the OP is saying - the probability of ACTUALLY getting voidfang vestments 4 weeks in a row is not the same. For example, you have a 50% chance to get heads. But if you rolled 100 times, and got heads EVERY time, the chances of getting heads 100 times in a row is lower (and it makes sense - how many times would you roll and get heads 100 times in a row. Would be crazy). But that has nothing to do with each instance of flipping the coin.
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While the possibility of an item being sold doesn't change on a weekly basis, the possibility to get it multiple weeks in a row does decrease. It's like the lottery. Each individual number drawn has similar odds (improves slightly each number) but the overall odds get worse as more numbers are drawn.
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You don't seem to get it either. He's stating the probability of it happening 4 times in a row assuming 1/6 chances each time. Not that you have that chance to get it every week. Numbnuts.
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And doing so is pointless because as you stated it always the same 1/6 chance. Kappa Herp Derp Kappa. Thus my point is you dumb if you think this way and you're wrong.
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It did happen 4 times in a row, and he's talking about the likelihood of that happening IN THE PAST being very small GIVEN each roll having a 1 in 6 chance. Good luck in stats class if you ever have em bro. Stick to creative arts for your profession.
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You both are kind of right. Their is a chance of a certain percentage each week. Having it four weeks in a row dramatically decreases the probability. If you flip a coin 4 times and the chance of it being tails 4 times in a row is not 50 percent. It's 1/2^4.
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Edited by marlo321: 11/28/2014 12:53:18 PMWhy thank you, you are a gentleman and a scholar! Edit: im not being sarcastic, I'm agreeing with you!
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Yesssss.
