I'm not speaking of the probability of him getting it this week, I'm speaking of the probability of him getting it over this multitude of weeks.
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Those events are mutually exclusive and it doesn't matter. Yes the odds of it happening I a series are low, but you don't know the weighting, and the sample size is still a bit small, it will take almost a full 30 or so weeks within a 5ish % margin of error for him to drop everything he can. Doesn't mean he isn't RNG because a set of events is unlikely to occur, occurs.
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Somebody paid attention in stats!
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No the sample size isnt small. For this post the sample size is one. That is the whole problem with the op.