Your work here clearly shows what I'm talking about. The probability of Xur selling Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% if your math is correct (I didn't check it) you do realize every other possible combination of exotics has the exact same odds.

Well...that's not how statistics also stack up. Because you are talking about individual results, not group statistics. Yes, every conceivable pattern has equal chances. Getting 100 heads in a row has the same chance as every 100 coin flip result, sure. But the chance of getting 1+ tails within 100 flips is much, much, much greater. Compound probability shows that getting 4 of the same thing in a row is significantly much rarer than getting different things, (as in a tails amongst heads.) It is more probable that Bungie hand picks which items to sell.

Vegas loves people like you. [quote]Compound probability shows that getting 4 of the same thing in a row is significantly much rarer than getting different things, (as in a tails amongst heads.)[/quote] How are you not getting this compound probability doesn't apply to independent events. Look anywhere you want and find one scenario from a credible source that compound probability applies to independent events. If you can do that "gh0st wh1sp3r is the greatest" will by my signature on every post for a year. If you can't I win.

Um. Compound probability DOES apply to a set of events, it's called "serial probability." The probability of getting 100 heads in a row is "nearly impossible" for the sake of statistics. Getting 50 heads and 50 tails total is the expected. Getting 100 in a row is astronomically difficult to do, save for rigging the system (a weighted coin.) The fact that you are suggesting that RNG statistics and Vegas gambling overlap is absurd and shows you have little understanding of statistics.

Assuming that each roll isn't weighted. Each class could have a different roll on slot, and each slot could have a different roll on specific item, for all we know it could be a bell curve of possibilities for thee total items, which would put the odds of xur rolling anything two deviations away at a really low probability, this making actual odds of what we're seeing significant. There simply isn't enough information to compute it, and if we went about trying to prove any hypothesis, especially only 8 or so weeks in, we would have to conclude that their is a probability roll for specific classes. RNG in a computer system is never truly random anyhow, and they probably coded a loot table to add artificial longevity for certain items. IE, warlock is 40/40/20 in hands/chest/helm, and chest is 10/40/40/10 for the chest options. It isn't rocket appliances, but we can't use traditional computational statistics to try and make any accurate statement regarding this. I've heard rumor that bungie hand picks items for xur, but I would have to see a bungie confirmation for that. Anyhow, this argument is fairly moot as the OP demonstrated he wasn't approaching this conundrum openly, and is instead using useless numbers to prove a useless point.