Well it depends on the light of your charters for your drops( excluding coins and engrams) if you do said nightfall as a 300+ it's a 80-90%chance as a 310 exotic or legendaries will be 301+ more than not. Just remember RNG
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All three over 300 light. Did better this week. I did get a 310 Hawkmoon. The other rewards were junk. In the weekly heroic yesterday though, my warlock did great. Got a 310 Thunderlord from a sublime engram. She also got 310 Impossible Machines from an exotic engram.